报告 人：EtiennePardoux教授 (法国Aix-Marseille大学)

报告题目：Large deviations in epidemics models

报告时间：2017年10月23日下午15:00

报告地点：知新楼B1238室

Abstract：

As we will show, the usual ODE models forepidemies are LLN limits (as the population size tends to infinity) of Poissondriven SDE models. This means that the "original" stochastic modelis, in the case of large population,  asmall random perturbation of the ODE model. Suppose an endemic situation is alocally stable equilibrium of the deterministic model. Then the theory ofWentzell and Freidlin allows us to predict the time it will take for the randomperturbations to drive the system to the extinction of the epidemic. We shallpresent recent joint work with P. Kratz, B. Samegni-Kepgnou ad B.Kouegou-Kamen, which give precise mathematical results for that problem.

欢迎各位老师同学积极参加！