报告 人：Etienne Pardoux教授 (法国Aix-Marseille大学)

报告题目：Large deviations in epidemics models

报告时间：2017年10月23日下午15:00

报告地点：知新楼B座1238室

Abstract： As we will show, the usual ODE models for epidemies are LLN limits (as the population size tends to infinity) of Poisson driven SDE models. This means that the "original" stochastic model is, in the case of large population, a small random perturbation of the ODE model. Suppose an endemic situation is a locally stable equilibrium of the deterministic model. Then the theory of Wentzell and Freidlin allows us to predict the time it will take for the random perturbations to drive the system to the extinction of the epidemic. We shall present recent joint work with P. Kratz, B. Samegni-Kepgnou ad B. Kouegou-Kamen, which give precise mathematical results for that problem.

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